Blackjack
Strategy
Blackjack is a game
of ability more than of chance. Luck plays a role, but
the outcome of a game is frequently determined by the
player's skill, regardless of luck. As the dealer is
forced to play by fixed rules, while the player has the
freedom to play as he or she wishes, a wise player could
use this freedom to gain an edge over the house. Some
players keep a mental record of the cards already used,
so that they can better guess what the next cards may be.
This tilts the odds in their favor and is called card
counting. In most casinos, if a player is suspected of
counting cards, he or she is usually asked to leave, but
in Internet casinos card counting cannot be prevented, so
online casinos try to minimize its importance by using
shoes with many decks and reshuffling when a small number
of cards have been drawn (limited penetration). At 4 Jacks Casino we use a six-deck shoe with reshuffling
after half the cards have been drawn.
The best thing to
do in a given situation depends not only on the value of
the player's hand, but also on the dealer's. As a guide,
you can keep in mind that the probabilities of improving
a hand by requesting an additional card are the
following:
TABLE I
PROBABILITY OF IMPROVING A HAND BY
REQUESTING ONE ADDITIONAL CARD
| Present
hand value |
Probability
of improving (as %) by requesting additional card
|
| 12
|
69.23
|
| 13
|
61.54
|
| 14
|
53.85
|
| 15
|
48.15
|
| 16
|
38.46
|
| 17
|
30.76
|
| 18
|
23.07
|
| 19
|
15.38
|
| 20
|
7.69
|
So,
looking at the above table it seems wise to hit with 14
or less and stand with 15 or more. But considering that
the dealer has the same chances of improving or worsen
her hand, and the fact that she must play according to
fixed rules, the combination of probabilities of player
and dealer leads to more complex decision rules. The
following table summarizes what are the decisions with the
best odds, those which maximizes the probability of
winning:
TABLE II
BLACKJACK OPTIMAL DECISIONS
| Dealer's Visible Card |
| Hand Value |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
Ace |
| 12 |
H |
H |
H |
H |
S |
H |
H |
H |
H |
H |
| 13 |
H |
H |
H |
H |
S |
H |
H |
H |
H |
H |
| 14 |
H |
H |
H |
H |
S |
H |
H |
H |
H |
S |
| 15 |
S |
S |
S |
S |
S |
H |
H |
H |
H |
S |
| 16 |
S |
S |
S |
S |
S |
H |
H |
H |
H |
S |
| 17 |
S |
S |
S |
S |
S |
S |
H |
H |
H |
S |
Here H means Hit and S
means Stand. In the case the player has less than 12,
he or she should always request an additional card
(hit) because the hand can only improve, bust being
impossible. With a hand value of 18, 19 or 20, it is
always advisable to stand, regardless of what the
dealer's face-up card may be.
In the preparation
of the above table only plain probabilities have been
considered and very important decisions such as doubling
or splitting are not included. Doubling and splitting
offer additional advantages to a skilled player by rising
the bet in favorable situations. Considering doubling
down in a game with two decks when the player's hand
contains no aces, the optimal decisions are the
following:
TABLE
III
BLACKJACK OPTIMAL DECISIONS
INCLUDING DOUBLING DOWN
PLAYER'S HAND CONTAINS NO ACES
| Dealer's Visible Card |
| Hand Value |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
Ace |
| 8 |
H |
H |
H |
H |
H |
H |
H |
H |
H |
H |
| 9 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
D |
H |
H |
H |
H |
H |
| 10 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
D |
D |
D |
D |
H |
H |
| 11 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
D |
D |
D |
D |
D |
D |
| 12 |
H |
H |
S |
S |
S |
H |
H |
H |
H |
H |
| 13 |
S |
S |
S |
S |
S |
H |
H |
H |
H |
H |
| 14 |
S |
S |
S |
S |
S |
H |
H |
H |
H |
H |
| 15 |
S |
S |
S |
S |
S |
H |
H |
H |
H |
H |
| 16 |
S |
S |
S |
S |
S |
H |
H |
H |
H |
H |
| 17 |
S |
S |
S |
S |
S |
S |
H |
H |
H |
S |
Key to table: H=Hit; S=Stand; D=Double
In the above table
it is assumed that doubling is permitted on the first two
cards, regardless of the value of the hand. This is not
always the case in all casinos, but it is the rule at 4
Jacks Casino. With hands of value 8 or less,
the player should always hit, not double, while with
hands of 18 or more the best move is to stand always.
If the hand
contains an ace (a "soft" hand), requesting an
additional card may improve or worsen the odds, but will
never bust. This makes a difference. In this case the
optimal moves are the following:
TABLE
IV
BLACKJACK OPTIMAL DECISIONS
INCLUDING DOUBLING DOWN
PLAYER'S HAND CONTAINS ONE ACE
| Dealer's Visible Card |
| Hand Value |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
Ace |
| 13 |
H |
H |
H |
D |
D |
H |
H |
H |
H |
H |
| 14 |
H |
H |
H |
D |
D |
H |
H |
H |
H |
H |
| 15 |
H |
H |
D |
D |
D |
H |
H |
H |
H |
H |
| 16 |
H |
H |
D |
D |
D |
H |
H |
H |
H |
H |
| 17 |
H |
D |
D |
D |
D |
H |
H |
H |
H |
H |
| 18 |
S |
D |
D |
D |
D |
S |
S |
H |
H |
H |
| 19 |
S |
S |
S |
S |
S |
S |
S |
S |
S |
S |
Key to
table:
H=Hit; S=Stand; D=Double
Splitting is
possible only when the first two cards are of the same
value. As this option make two different hands playing
against the same dealer's hand, it should be taken only
when the split hands will have favorable odds. Computer
simulations result in that the best decisions in these
cases are those in Table V below:
TABLE
V
BLACKJACK OPTIMAL DECISIONS
INCLUDING DOUBLING AND SPLITTING
| Dealer's Visible Card |
| Player's Hand |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
Ace |
| 2,2 |
L |
L |
L |
L |
L |
L |
H |
H |
H |
H |
| 3,3 |
L |
L |
L |
L |
L |
L |
H |
H |
H |
H |
| 4,4 |
H |
H |
H |
L |
L |
H |
H |
H |
H |
H |
| 5,5 |
D |
D |
D |
D |
D |
D |
D |
D |
H |
H |
| 6,6 |
L |
L |
L |
L |
L |
L |
H |
H |
H |
H |
| 7,7 |
L |
L |
L |
L |
L |
L |
L |
H |
H |
H |
| 8,8 |
L |
L |
L |
L |
L |
L |
L |
L |
L |
L |
| 9,9 |
L |
L |
L |
L |
L |
S |
L |
L |
S |
S |
| 10,10 |
S |
S |
S |
S |
S |
S |
S |
S |
S |
S |
| A,A |
L |
L |
L |
L |
L |
L |
L |
L |
L |
L |
Key to
table:
H=Hit; S=Stand; D=Double; L=Split
There is much more
in blackjack strategy. As blackjack gained widespread
popularity and given the possibility of beating the
house, many different winning methods with or without
card counting have been developed. Several of them can be
found in books on blackjack strategy. You can
find many at Amazon.com.
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